By: Justin Holden
|1||Pat Mahomes||Kansas City Chiefs|
|2||Andrew Luck||Indianapolis Colts|
|3||Baker Mayfield||Cleveland Browns|
|4||Russell Wilson||Seattle Seahawks|
|5||Aaron Rodgers||Green Bay Packers|
|6||Drew Brees||New Orleans Saints|
|7||Deshaun Watson||Houston Texans|
|8||Carson Wentz||Philadelphia Eagles|
|9||Cam Newton||Carolina Panthers|
|10||Matt Ryan||Atlanta Falcons|
|11||Matthew Stafford||Detroit Lions|
|12||Philip Rivers||Los Angeles Chargers|
|13||Mitch Trubisky||Chicago Bears|
|14||Dak Prescott||Dallas Cowboys|
|15||Jameis Winston||Tampa Bay Buccaneers|
|16||Lamar Jackson||Baltimore Ravens|
|17||Tom Brady||New England Patriots|
|18||Jared Goff||Los Angeles Rams|
|19||Kirk Cousins||Minnesota Vikings|
|20||Jimmy Garoppolo||San Francisco 49ers|
|21||Ben Roethlisberger||Pittsburgh Steelers|
|22||Derek Carr||Oakland Raiders|
|23||Sam Darnold||New York Jets|
|24||Kyler Murray||Arizona Cardinals|
|25||Marcus Mariota||Tennessee Titans|
|26||Josh Allen||Buffalo Bills|
|27||Andy Dalton||Cincinnati Bengals|
|28||Nick Foles||Jacksonville Jaguars|
|29||Josh Rosen||Miami Dolphins|
|30||Case Keenum||Washington Redskins|
|31||Joe Flacco||Denver Broncos|
|32||Eli Manning||New York Giants|
Key Differences – LSO Rankings vs Average Draft Position (ADP)
Baker Mayfield – Has an ADP of 5 but I have him ranked at 3. With a season of NFL experience under his belt now, and an offense loaded with play makers such as the the newly acquired Odell Beckham Jr, I expect Mayfield to have a Pat Mahomes style breakout in his second season. Ultimately I think AFC North defenses (minus the Bengals) will find a way to put a cap on Mayfield’s upside, preventing him from finishing as the #1 QB. But he’s for damn sure going to get close.
Matthew Stafford – Has an ADP of 23 but I have him ranked at 11. Stafford is coming off of a poor season where he threw just 21 passing touchdowns. But ultimately, we are talking about a player who has finished as a top ten quarterback multiple times over the course of his career and more often than not returns value on his draft position. Judging by Stafford’s current ADP, he will return value on his draft position in a big way. Fundamentally, I do not see a huge difference between Stafford and similar pocket passers such as Ryan and Rivers. This is why I have them all ranked similarly. Expect a bounce back season for the Lions’ offense.
Mitch Trubisky – Has an ADP of 19 but I have him ranked at 13. Trubisky missed two games last season and still finished as QB15. Trubisky showed that he is capable of putting up monster games, like the one against Tampa Bay where he threw for six passing touchdowns. Other than the loss of Jordan Howard, who underwhelmed last season, not much has changed for the Chicago Bears offense. Barring injury, I see no reason why Trubisky’s production would take a dip compared to last season.
Ben Roethlisberger – Has an ADP of 13 but I have him ranked at 21. Roethlisberger is coming off of a huge season, there’s no doubt about it. Despite throwing double digit interceptions, his 31 passing TD’s and 5,000+ passing yards returned great value for his fantasy owners. So why am I so low on Big Ben this year? The loss of Antonio Brown will hurt. And every indication right now is that the Pittsburgh Steelers will be going to a run heavy offense this season. Roethlisberger is 37 and has taken a beating over his career due to his style of play. He’s always an injury risk, and I’d be shocked if he didn’t retire by the end of this season.
Tom Brady – Has an ADP of 14 but I have him ranked at 17. I believe I’m actually being generous with my Tom Brady ranking because I have seen other websites rank him as low as 20. Let’s face it, Brady’s team won the super bowl last season, but they did it without him throwing a touchdown pass. Tom Brady is the oldest starting quarterback in the league. Rob Gronkowski retired in the offseason. Brady did not finish as a top ten quarterback last season and I see no catalyst for him to do so this season. While Brady seems determined to wage war with Father Time, I suggest you let someone else draft him, as he will probably go even higher than his current ADP as we get closer to the start of the season.
Kirk Cousins – Has an ADP of 12 but I have him ranked at 19. As much as I’d like to move Cousins up in my rankings, I just can’t do it. Yes, he has Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs at his disposal, and both are excellent receivers. However, I just don’t see game script allowing Cousins to be a big time fantasy quarterback. The Minnesota Vikings have a strong defense, and Dalvin Cook is going to get his carries. The way this team is built, I just don’t see them airing it out enough to make Cousins a huge factor in fantasy. Significant injuries on the Vikings defense or to Cook would provide a catalyst for Cousins to air it out more and finish with more fantasy points, but this is not something that I am betting on.